"A new trend has emerged in American politics: The very youngest voters — 18-to-24-year-olds — say they’re more conservative than the cohort that’s just older,” according to the latest Harvard Youth Poll.
“This new trend — which is true for both genders and emerged only in the last few years — is especially pronounced with men.”
Here’s the results from that youth poll the Axios article doesn’t mention:
The poll also finds:
A significant enthusiasm gap between young Democrats and Republicans, with 74% of young Democrats saying they will “definitely” vote, compared to 60% of young Republicans.
A widening gender gap, nearly doubling from 17 points in the Spring poll to 30 points now, with Harris leading 70% to 23% among likely female voters.
Harris outperforming Trump on key personal qualities and issues, with substantial leads in empathy (+33), relatability (+24), honesty (+22), climate change (+32), abortion (+31), health care (+26), and gun violence prevention (+25) among all young adults.
Harris’s job approval as Vice President has significantly improved, increasing from 32% in the Spring poll to 44% now.
Strong support for progressive policies among young Americans, with 74% favoring capping prescription drug prices and 59% supporting a nationwide law to legalize abortion.
Overwhelming rejection of Project 2025 among young Americans, with only 6% viewing it favorably compared to 48% unfavorably. Even among Republicans, we find 14% viewing it favorably and 23% unfavorably.
The impact of social media, with 53% of young adults encountering memes about Harris online in the last month, 34% of whom say it positively influenced their opinion. Conversely, 56% have seen memes about Trump, with 26% reporting a negative impact on their perception.
https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/48th-edition-fall-2024
And yet because of the electoral college, it’s still dead even. Factor in the armed citizen (trump supporting) electoral monitors planning to patrol ballots on election day and other vote suppression tactics, disenrollment and other court disenfranchisement tactics, and laws being passed to try to legally not certify a Harris victory, I figure Harris is probably and a 45-55 underdog at the moment.
Young people still don’t vote at very high rates. They also tend to be the most likely demographic to say they are a likely voter but then not actually bother to vote. The youth vote is still a problem in this country.
I could be wrong, but I seem to remember that young conservative “likely voters” were much more likely to actually vote, so that muddies some of the clarity here as well.