If Kamala and trump both tie the electoral college, which it is looking like a possibility, a new president would be chosen by the new Congress on Jan 6th. Scary to think about

  • BakerBagel@midwest.social
    61·
    21 days ago

    PA, MI, and WI are all but guaranteed to go together. Any scenarios where they vote for different candidates are mostly just fantasy

    • randon31415@lemmy.world
      4·
      21 days ago

      I was just explaining this concept to someone about the 2016 polls: all the posters thought of PA,MI, and WI as independent. Each had a 50% chance of going to Trump and he needed all three to win. So they projected him winning at (1/2)^3=1 in 8 chance of winning. Then they found out that those three were correlated.

      I would say if Trump wins WI he wins PA and MI; and if Harris wins PA she wins WI and MI; BUT, if Trump wins PA he is not guaranteed a win in WI nor Harris winning WI guarantees a PA win.

    • helloworld55@lemm.eeOP
      2·
      21 days ago

      Yeah that’s probably true. Just looking at the polls though, I realized this was a possibility.

      Polls could also be wrong, which of course changes the statistics. But from what I’ve read, it seems like those states are each basically a coin flip, and the odds say a tie is not unlikely enough to ignore