• lennybird@lemmy.world
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    3 days ago

    That is complete and utter bullshit and smarter minds than me are already advising it, including one of the biggest analysts in the industry, Nate Silver. Here, let me walk you through it:

    I’ve thought this through for quite some time and I think you’re missing the opportunity for Democrats to seize the narrative.

    • “We listened to voters who were unsatisfied with either candidate, a large majority who said age is a real concern for them.”
    • “Joe Biden stepped down for the American People to let a younger generation lead.”
    • FREE VIRAL MEDIA TIME for months on end about the fresh face of the Democratic party.
    • A complete lack of developed right-wing talking-points to disseminate.

    It doesn’t have to – nor should it be – Harris. I can think of half a dozen other candidates with semi-national profiles who could easily surge in polling with such viral media attention following a Biden resignation.

    All we know is what doesn’t work, and what doesn’t work was shown last night. It has been showing in poll after poll after poll despite people burying their heads in the sand: a President with approval ratings in the 30s, and a Presidential candidate who is FAR behind in every data-point compared to where he was in 2020. Need I remind you that Biden took this debate out of pure desperation to begin with, and now he’s now 2 full steps further back than where he needs to be as my link on battle-ground undecided voters proves.

    I’ve listened to Jon Stewart, Katie Couric, 2 different NYT podcasts, post-PBS analysis, Pod Save America (former Obama/VP Biden staffers), Washington Week roundtable – and they are all echoing the same fucking thing:

    It is time to try something different.

    • jj4211@lemmy.world
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      2 days ago

      Given the timing that nearly all the primaries are done, his replacement would necessarily be someone no one even has the chance to vote on. This is a tremendous risk.

      However, if he announced someone like “announcing my new chief of staff: Obama”…

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        That would be interesting and I’m frankly open to it.

        I don’t think people not voting is a big deal because frankly we didn’t have a legitimate primary season this cycle anyway. More importantly, if Biden himself voluntarily stepped down and endorsed someone else, then that at least channels those votes through Biden.

    • just_another_person@lemmy.worldOP
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      2 days ago

      I’m laughing my ass off that you even try to source Nate Silver. Member when he was right those two times a long ass time ago? 🙄

      You checked his accuracy rate, friend? It’s not good. He makes prediction models, buddy. Well, then after they aren’t very good, he writes a ton about how they were actually great and everyone misunderstood what the data REALLY was saying.

      • lennybird@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        I’m laughing you don’t seem to understand how statistics and probability work. But please, DO tell how he was wrong – I’m going to enjoy this.

        But hey, excellent attempt to cop-out of the myriad of other points in my comment, buddy. Can only respond to maybe 10% of a comment but want to try to take down a leading statistician? Okie-dokie!