Most of that after the first paragraph is valid, but it can only mean a candidate “is favored” or something like that (in the same sense, to continue the analogy, that an athlete who won a bunch of previous events in the lead-up to the Olympics “is favored” at the start of the Olympic event itself). It can’t be “in the lead,” because the actual race event doesn’t begin until the polls open.
The point is, being the favorite doesn’t actually mean you’ve made progress towards winning. It is not like being 5 km ahead in a marathon! It is still extremely possible for the favorite to choke at the event itself and lose badly, and all the prior favorability in the world is completely moot and confers no actual advantage at all.
Most of that after the first paragraph is valid, but it can only mean a candidate “is favored” or something like that (in the same sense, to continue the analogy, that an athlete who won a bunch of previous events in the lead-up to the Olympics “is favored” at the start of the Olympic event itself). It can’t be “in the lead,” because the actual race event doesn’t begin until the polls open.
The point is, being the favorite doesn’t actually mean you’ve made progress towards winning. It is not like being 5 km ahead in a marathon! It is still extremely possible for the favorite to choke at the event itself and lose badly, and all the prior favorability in the world is completely moot and confers no actual advantage at all.