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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • In March, the former president won enough primary races to secure the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential election.

    However, according to a survey of 1,003 Americans by Canadian polling firm Leger, Trump does not command the full support of his base and 33 percent of this demographic would have preferred another politician.

    Another way of writing that 33 percent prefer another politician is that 67 percent prefer Trump. Last I checked, 67 percent support is enough to secure the Republican nomination.

    Meanwhile, this proportion is higher (47 percent) among Republican voters aged 18 to 34 years old.

    Again, another way of writing this is that 53 percent of Republican voters aged 18 to 34 years old support Trump. I’ll double check my arithmetic, but even this seems to be enough to win primaries.

    With a title like “One in three Republicans now think Donald Trump was wrong candidate choice,” I would expect to see a poll which showed that fewer than “One in three Republicans” used to “think Donald Trump was wrong candidate choice.” That seems like a straightforward way to make the point this article is trying to make. Yet none is provided. Instead we are treated to some general electorate polling showing some minor fluctuation and some republicans who were already critical of Trump continuing to be critical of Trump.

    The centrist will to make the Republicans look better than they are is so powerful.