• 3 Posts
  • 28 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: February 6th, 2025

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  • Statistics, anyone?

    If we’re a simple ‘normal’ population, your wife’s idea holds; there should be 1 in 1000 athlete in every 1000 people. to get a 1 in 1000 athletic performance with a 50% confidence you need only take 693 samples. So if many thousands have played, you’d expect to have seen peak performance.

    But we aren’t distributed like that. Z score analysis of a measurable sport indicates a known top athlete like Usain Bolt is in the order of 5 standard deviations from the norm (depending what we consider the norm data set). That’s more like 1 in a million to one in 10 million to get a Bolt. Which implies millions need to try (and train) to get a Bolt level performance (3 humans in that tier so far, implies between 3 & 30 million have tried). So a Bolt seems to be reaching human limits, reinforcing the wife position position for that sport - we are approaching the human limit.

    But wait - that is a popular sport, with a single simple measure. If there were multiple relevant independent measures (say hitting and pitching, or running and throwing), even just 2, the odds become astronomical of finding the best. A dual 1 in 1000 is a 1 in a million. A dual z=5 athlete is 1 in 12 trillion.

    So the implication is that for more complex sports where multiple attributes apply, it is much more likely we have not yet seen peak human capabilities. It’s also much harder to measure and recognize when we do - so props to the legendary players, and keep searching for them. We won’t know how good they really were until we sample (play) the sport for hundreds or thousands of years. Finding peak is incredibly lucky/unlikely for our most popular complex sports.





  • You’re getting good advice here, especially @Doomsider@lemmy.world

    2 months isn’t that long and you should keep your head up and keep trying. Discouragement and lack of effort are the enemy.

    I would add, consider your target industries. Different industries have different cycles and levels of available positions. If you’re mostly looking in retail, this might not be the right economy or time of year, etc. One industry that usually has high demand and might overlap with psychology is health care. Assisted living, home health care, and many related non-medical care environments have consistent staffing challenges and don’t require specific degrees in nursing or medical, etc. I paid my way through college that way and learned a lot of life lessons, including the reasons that work isn’t for everyone. YMMV

    There are probably some other under employed unglamorous jobs in your area if you look with fresh eyes. And as others said, volunteering some free time could be a win win, doing stuff keeps the spirit up and being involved creates opportunities.




  • Not quite. Dark forest says it’s dangerous out there, so everyone else is quiet. Not that we’re dangerous, but that we’re at risk by being noisy.

    We pose no real threat to any other civilization, we can’t get to them.

    It’s possible we’re being avoided because we’re loathsome in some way or various ways, but that’s not dark forest.

    It’s also possible we pose a risk we don’t understand (disease, culture, loudness) so we’re avoided / quarantined, but that is also not dark forest.

    More like Ostracized Planet.





  • Fair point. It lasted 4-5 years solid. 6-8 clearly rapid failure.

    Quickly is relative to the 10 year warranty.

    I paid (usd 5k plus - king size) with a warranty in mind. Was told ‘our material is different, worth it’ - Full sales job. I’m technical, but details matter and they’re proprietary. I trusted the warranty + brand, which was a bad, expensive move.

    Realistic expectations - memory foam lasts 4-5 years, more or less depending on pressure and humidity, and should be priced accordingly. YSK!