This is hopeful, and we need more nuclear, but I have very serious questions about the methodology to this survey.
The prior marks on the line graph indicate not all categories of response are represented, as the don’t add up to 100%. Then there is a sudden change over the last 4 years where the % supporting jumps to the mid 70s and all four periods add up to exactly 100%.
This, to me, feels like a question change on or around 2021, or a methodology change that’s not clearly labeled, and casts doubt on the integrity of the research, especially given the generally modest level of knowledge about nuclear, which, according to my read of the article and survey details, doesn’t appear to have changed at any point.
Below the elite level, relative skill differences can be large enough that a skilled cis women can outcompete a lesser skilled cis men. And that’s where 99% of sports are played so these rules/laws just serve to make cis men not feel threatened by potentially losing in a softball game to a woman.
At the more elite levels, though, the skill gaps are much smaller, and being faster or stronger are the difference. Most WNBA players can’t dunk, most NBA players can. Elite men run 100M a full second faster than elite women. At those levels, men have a distinct physical advantage.
There have been some studies indicating trans women still have higher lung capacity than cis women, more strength etc, but there’s still some uncertainty because the number of studies are limited, and there’s even one study that indicated cis women may have an advantage over trans women.
But considering the laws currently being passed, they aren’t targeting elite athletes, and are instead targeting kids, and not out of the spirit of competition, but out of hate.