I still want to know who made $$millions shorting American and United Airlines before 9/11.
It was $5 million, and the money is unclaimed on the Chicago stock exchange.
Someone has to know who placed the order.
all that is confidential unless SEC form 4.
I’m willing go bet a lot of people making weird bets like this are doing the equivalent of insider trading. The whole concept of betting on random news is ripe for the opportunity for people with insider knowledge to always win big off of the losses of gambling addicts.
That’s the point of those platforms, to bribe the people with that knowledge to reveal it.
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They would still make money since they take a cut off every bet. Just not as much as selling their insider data.
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Yeah unlike sports where at least the games are ostensibly fair, heavily scrutinized, and managed by organizations that try to stop this. Even then it still happens sometimes.
This system is just completely unenforceable insanity.
Of course it is and the creators know that. But it’s profitable
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Barron is doing this shit.
Can we make a bet on that ?
You have to be an idiot to gamble at these sites. I already feel like an idiot for having money in the stock market with all the insider trading, but thanks to inflation you’re fucked if you do and fucked if you don’t.
The stock market is a global suicide machine, change my mind
It’s a ponzi scheme supporting millions of people’s retirements, myself included.
Ideally we have social security, which is a much more regulated and carefully managed ponzi scheme but the people in power use it like a piggy bank because it’s not like they’re going to be around when it runs dry.
I live in a country with a quite strong social security scheme, but the money in our social security funds, like pensions, is mostly invested in the stock market anyways.
Good Take
Unless you had an active decision in oar were privy to the making of the attack happen.
The fact that you end up potentially gambling against insiders like this is one thing that makes these bet on anything sites so dumb to interact with in the first place. Which also makes me not really care about this particular grift.
Well yea, is it not blatantly obvious to everyone that bad actors will use this “bet on anything” bullshit to grift the system?
I’m certain the people who run the websites know this and don’t give a shit, because it’s profitable.
The weird thing is that it provides OPSEC to US opponents. Simply watch polymarket for a yolo bet
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You can’t really stop it when you make a decentralized platform like that.
It’s like saying we made cash and we knew people would fund terrorism with it but oh well.
A decentralized betting platform has benefits. It also has detriments.
Any website involved is really just a front end. It’s on the blockchain and can be used regardless of website and its there forever now, but the website definitely makes it easier to use.
Grifting and and inequality is a baked in part of capitalism. I don’t think you can get around it without fundamentally shifting your approach to money
400k seems relatively low for the usual scum. Could be a lower rank military personnel, or a staffer.
This is huge opsec issue from now on. Basically you can start seeing military operations before they happen.
Has been for a while now. One of my buddies works in military intelligence. He combs social media for soldier whereabouts to inform military ops.
Social Media is its own beast, but there people can talk shit near anonymous, talk is cheap. With these betting sites, people are putting money in front, which people won’t do without some inside info.
Yeah, the bet was only 32k. Honestly surprising more people didn’t have this idea
This is the least of it. Representatives entire families are set for life. Somehow, everybody in their family gets stinking rich after election, and their book is always a “NYTimes best seller” because they are bought by the campaign (and dumped in a landfill), insider trading is rampant, super-PACs.
I’m okay with someone in the military picking up some extra cash. Family has to eat, whether government is “shut down” or not. I hope it was some smart ass buck private.
In the USA politics is the number three easiest way to achieve “financial security”, only inheritors and prosperity gospel preachers have it easier.
Can we all go on polymarket and start a betting pool that Peter Thiel will not be violently assassinated by the end of the year?
Bad people don’t die. The more evil you absorb the longer you live. Like Kissinger living to 100.
Because it has to be here.
I suspect it’s the lack of stress due to being a sociopath. Not caring about others has to make life pretty easy in some respects.
Bad people don’t die
Selection bias. Bad people die all the time, and then we forget about them (or never learn about them) because they stop being in the spotlight.
Nobody talks about the Koch Brothers or the Waltons anymore, as they’ve degraded to irrelevance. Nobody talks about the Carnegies or Fords or Hoovers anymore, for the same reason.
Steve Jobs was an evil fuck and he’s gone now, so he’s off the radar.
Meanwhile, nobody had Lucky Palmer pegged as a sociopath ten years ago and now he’s doing James Bond Villain tier war crimes.
Do I vote for or against to make it more likely?
The one who bets for Thiel being dead collects the money if that happens. They would also benefit from actually carrying out the deed. These markets are essentially crowdfunding for dirty stuff.
My question is what are the other predictions
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Polymarket, Kalshi and others are Insider trading systems camoflauged as a “Truth Seeker” but at the end, It is a gamble even worse than a gambling casino. The insider trader has a incentive to stack odds against oneself and “beat” a better likelihood in the market. Even as a truth finder, It works at the last second before the actual reveal.
Corrupt politicians are corrupt. More at 11.
When there is no punishment, the system must be working perfectly.
How does that platform work? Can you still place bets when rockets hit Venezuela? Can you still place bets when people speculate he was already abducted?
You can still bet on near certain events / events in progress, but there’s not necessarily a benefit in doing so as the odds shift. If something is believed to have a 50% chance of occurring then theoretically the bet would cost 0.5 for a payout of 1 (of you win). As the outcome becomes more (or less) likely, the cost of the bet changes to reflect that. In a prediction market, it’s similar to stock market in that in order for you to buy a share / place a prediction bet, someone has to be selling a share/taking the other side of the bet and the prices shift based on perceived value of the underlying thing being traded (stocks or predictions).
How is this legal
Legally they are not betting against the house. People are betting against each other on if a certain event will happen, and the site takes a set percentage for facilitating the bets. This makes it legal under gambling laws in most US States.
It probably can’t be stopped either at this point.
Assuming it was illegal, they could arrest the developers because they are earning money on it, but arresting them and taking the website down won’t stop people from using it as it’s smart contract based on a blockchain. The website is just the front end, the blockchain/smart contract is the backend.
So now you gotta go after the individuals using it, who could annonymize their funds through something like Tornado Cash, making it pretty hard to stop.
So if I opened a physical casino with let’s say roulette without 00 but a commission charge to play it’s legal?
No, roulette is still betting against the house. A more apt comparison is poker, the house has nothing to do with the outcome or the game and has no stakes in the winner or loser when legal. This is why many will either take a percentage of the pot to recoop the cost of facilitating the game and dealer, about 2% I think, or have a membership fee. In many states poker only card houses or card clubs are completely legal.
Crime is legal now
Gambling.
It’s disgusting but not necessarily illegal.
It’s unrelated gambling to be specific. You can fix the results or have insider knowledge
I bet you a dollar that the ratio of votes on your post will be some number by January 11th.
I bet you a dollar that President Trump will not live to see 2037.
We’re just two people making bets here. Anyone want to sidebar on this action?
I’ll make a bet on how many bets you get!
Why is the date of the post omitted? When was “last night”?
