I won’t believe a single headline about Trump doing poorly. Not until after Kamala wins and is sworn in without another coup attempt. Anything short of that is delusional. Go out and vote, people.
Unless he literally hangs himself. Then, please notify me immediately.
my prediction:
Chokes on a hamburger while sitting on his gold shitter. The cacophony that ensues will be dismissed for another truth social posting. He’ll be found the next day.
His final post: Choking on my burg ne covfefe
I’ll bring the spinach artichoke dip
Fuck the polls, fuck the analysts
go fucking vote
I mean, he could still murder JD Vance and replace the corpse with like nikki haley or something.
Or the other way around
Yep. I’ve been forever hardened into a political and legal cynic starting with hanging chads and most recently, with the lack of Jan 6 accountability for Trump.
Biden dropping out was a wonderful and pleasant surprise. I was NOT getting my hopes up that he would step down, especially given the DNC’s tendency to fuck up what should be easy wins.
This has been a fait accompli since 2015. The only thing I guessed wrong about this election 9 years ago was Pelosi actually being able to convince Biden to drop out.
Now that he has, Harris is a shoe-in.
I love how his campaign is spiraling out of control, yet every poll that comes out still has them in a statistical tie. I’d like it to spiral a little quicker please.
Both things can be true.
…What we’ve found for the last 10 years or so now is that when it comes to Republican candidates, and especially Trump, reality no longer matters. At all. There are 743,000 things that should have disqualified him for president. That Republicans should have noped out on, said “this is definitely not our guy”. They just don’t matter. For a number of reasons.
His campaign could be literally a dog shitting on a US flag. And it wouldn’t change anything; he would still poll virtually the same. There are almost no actual “undecideds” leaning towards him.
At this point, it’s about voter motivation and access. His guys CAN be less motivated to vote, and Harris supporters can definitely be more motivated to vote. That’s where we are.
Thanks. And I was having such a great week.
Isn’t that true about all US elections? There are no “undecided” voters, just Dems and Reps and the result is always based on who can motivate their voters the most.
Not all.
And it didn’t use to be. Well, as bad, anyway.
Also, democrats and Democrat-aligned seem to be more likely to consider other options, or to call out their leaders. Not always, and probably not even most of the time. But significantly more often.
Also, it goes in one direction. I know plenty of democrats who voted for a Republican president, but hardly any republicans that voted for a Democrat president.
If that were true, then nobody would be worried about third-party voters. Off the top of my head, you might want to consider it 1992, 2000, and 2016.
(Of course motivating people is really important, too.)
Agreed, but I don’t know the mindset of those people and how to think of them. Do we just take them out of the voter pool? Are they potentially swing?
My take on 2016 was that the Dems were deeply unenthusiastic about Hillary - and who can blame them - so they didn’t show up to vote. On the other hand the Reps were stoked about Trump so they turned up at the polls.
Swing voters? I don’t get it. I cannot see any rational person sitting in the middle comparing Trump and Harris and picking Trump as a better presidential option. Irrational people? My gut tells me they they are probably sitting and the far ends of either camp.
My guess is that the people closer to the middle aren’t actually swing voters, but they are far more likely to have their enthusiasm to vote influenced than the true believers.
The big question, in my opinion, is how much - or how little - the polls reflect the enthusiasm to go out and vote. My impression is that Dem enthusiasm in high right now, while not so much for the Reps. It’s possible that a 50/50 poll may hide the fact that a big chunk of one of the 50% is much less likely to actually vote.
I’m Canadian, so I see the news but I don’t have day to day experience with US voters. Of course, neither do the 90% of Americans that don’t live in those swing states.
Many polls are of registered likely voters. So as you point out, that data alone is not particularly informative on this issue.
My question is how much “likely” translates to “voted”. It seems easy to respond, “Yes”, when asked on the phone, but requires a bit more enthusiasm to actually go stand in line and cast a vote.
Cool now do it with a real rope.
contributor Ed Luce suggested the former president has quickly become his own worse enemy.
Should be worst, but we can’t afford copy editors anymore and I hate it.
Let them poison AI with bad grammar.
This is the way, sprinkle random nonsense into your statements. Glue on pizza for days. capcom.
I love glue on pizza. It’s up there with molten plastic on pizza. The plastic gives the pizza a nice tangy flavor and really lets the cheese stretch.
I mean, this is something you could genuinely use an LLM for. “Find any grammatical errors in this text.” I mean, a word processor could also do that, but oh well.
Also, since a lot of them seem at least partially trained on random internet content, and they don’t seem to have much of a problem with grammar, I don’t think that’s a valid tactic.
It was the worse of time, it was the better of time.
Maybe they’re leaving room for improvement?
All this negative news about trump everywhere makes me nervous. Don’t forget how confident everyone was when Hillary ran. Most, including myself, didn’t think trump stood a chance.
Kamala hasn’t won yet. It’s still close. And trump has an unswayable cult behind him that see all this negativity as fuel to vote even harder.
Dont get complacent or overconfident. trump could still win.
Who was confident about Hillary? She was a mediocre candidate with a ton of baggage. Kamala is a much better candidate (who still might lose).
The polls were. Lesson being, there’s only one real poll that counts.
Not in a dramatic sense. They converged a few times and we’re often in margin of error.
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Also I’m sure despite him saying that he will not debate again, he’ll change his mind and do better in round 2 after they drill enough talking points in his head. It doesn’t take a lot for his base to claim a debate victory. He just has to look the part for the duration of the debate.
I still blame James Comey.
Wow, that’s a lot.
You can dispute what he did and make the case that it had some kind of impact but I think you’re simultaneously (a) ignoring a bunch of other factors and (b) vastly overestimating how plugged in the average voter was to that drama. Hanging the election on Comey is wild.
I’ve been real happy to see the nationwide composite polls and predictions slide to Harris’ favor.
Stuff like 538 and 270towin were stagnant Trump advantages for so many monthsm
trump is hanging himself
it’s figurative
Same
don’t give up hope, we’ve still got a few months 🤞
Sure can see a lot of bare scalp underneath that… hairs.
The popcorn factory has laid on extra shifts to meet demand
Really? Because the polls are pretty tight still. 47% to 44% per the BBC is not exactly spiraling out of control.
Real polls take time. True opinion polls take at a minimum 2 weeks to conduct sufficient sampling and do analysis on and prep for release. You won’t see the full effect of the debate results in polls until, at the earliest, end of next week.
And at the end of the day the only poll that matters is the one on November 5th…
Maybe it’s the fact that most people treat it like a local team rivalry or a “I hate my team but I won’t let the others win”.
Ooh ooh! Is he “increasingly isolated”?
I love the part where he’s increasingly isolated.
How can he become increasingly isolated from his previous state of complete and total isolation?
I guess he could turn off the TV.
“Hanging himself with his own rope” is a funny saying. Imagine someone borrowing your rope to hang themself. “Sure, Don, you can borrow my rope.” Then you go to get your rope back. “Hey, Don! You done with my… nah, dude, that’s your rope. That’s not my rope. My bad.”
I think it means you’re killing yourself, instead of getting hanged by a hangman for example. Similar to shooting yourself in the foot.
Why is this title so tittilatingly erotic to me?
This coward?!! Get real…
Schadenfreude.
